"The danger of Board management, against which
one has to be on one's guard, is lest one should succeed in persuading the Board
rather against its better judgement in the first instance, and then have to suffer the
penalty of their faint-heartedness at a later date, just when the virtues of continuity
of mind are most required if one is to be successful in the long run"
Credit cycling means
in practice selling market leaders on a falling market and buying them on a rising
one and, allowing for expenses and loss of interest, it needs phenomenal skill to
make much out of it
As time goes on, I get more and
more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into
enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management
of which one thoroughly believes
Keynes also thought in a novel way about equity valuation. For example, he
estimated the value of Austin Motor shares in terms not only of earnings yield but
also of market capitalisation per car produced and estimated that Austin traded at a
67% discount to General Motors in October 1933
"Buying is forward-looking and selling is backwardlooking.
We tend to consider what a new stock will do for the portfolio and what a
current holding has done. This makes buying a more hopeful activity, focusing on
the future and what good might come from owning a stock, whereas selling can be
full of regret as we ponder the poor choice we made or that we held on too long"
when buying, investors consider the past
only inasmuch as they believe it is informative about the future, but when it comes
to selling their focus is heavily on the past and many investors, seeking to minimize
regret, sell winners too early and hold on to their losers
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
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